Disaster, or Calamity? You be the judge

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Disaster, or Calamity? You be the judge

Post by Ben Mothafuckin' Reilly on Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:16 pm

The Good Judgment research team is based in the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California Berkeley. The project is led by psychologists Philip Tetlock, author of the award-winning Expert Political Judgment, Barbara Mellers, an expert on judgment and decision-making, and Don Moore, an expert on overconfidence. Other team members are experts in psychology, economics, statistics, computer science and interface design.

We are participating in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program, sponsored by IARPA (the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity). The ACE Program aims "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts." The project is unclassified: our results will be published in traditional scholarly and scientific journals, and will be available to the general public.


I'm going to be a participant in Year 4! Hide your daughters ...

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Ben Mothafuckin' Reilly
Cowboy King. Dread Pirate of the Guadalupe. Enemy of the American People.

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Re: Disaster, or Calamity? You be the judge

Post by Original Quill on Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:38 pm

Sounds like a military probability assessment.

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