How did scientists get climate change so wrong?

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How did scientists get climate change so wrong? Empty How did scientists get climate change so wrong?

Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:05 pm

It turns out, none of the predictions were "alarmist" enough:

For decades, most scientists saw climate change as a distant prospect. We now know that thinking was wrong. This summer, for instance, a heat wave in Europe penetrated the Arctic, pushing temperatures into the 80s across much of the Far North and, according to the Belgian climate scientist Xavier Fettweis, melting some 40 billion tons of Greenland’s ice sheet.

Had a scientist in the early 1990s suggested that within 25 years a single heat wave would measurably raise sea levels, at an estimated two one-hundredths of an inch, bake the Arctic and produce Sahara-like temperatures in Paris and Berlin, the prediction would have been dismissed as alarmist. But many worst-case scenarios from that time are now realities.

Science is a process of discovery. It can move slowly as the pieces of a puzzle fall together and scientists refine their investigative tools. But in the case of climate, this deliberation has been accompanied by inertia born of bureaucratic caution and politics. A recent essay in Scientific American argued that scientists “tend to underestimate the severity of threats and the rapidity with which they might unfold” and said one of the reasons was “the perceived need for consensus.” This has had severe consequences, diluting what should have been a sense of urgency and vastly understating the looming costs of adaptation and dislocation as the planet continues to warm.

In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group of thousands of scientists representing 195 countries, said in its first report that climate change would arrive at a stately pace, that the methane-laden Arctic permafrost was not in danger of thawing, and that the Antarctic ice sheets were stable.

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Relying on the climate change panel’s assessment, economists estimated that the economic hit would be small, providing further ammunition against an aggressive approach to reducing emissions and to building resilience to climate change.

As we now know, all of those predictions turned out to be completely wrong. Which makes you wonder whether the projected risks of further warming, dire as they are, might still be understated. How bad will things get?

So far, the costs of underestimation have been enormous. New York City’s subway system did not flood in its first 108 years, but Hurricane Sandy’s 2012 storm surge caused nearly $5 billion in water damage, much of which is still not repaired. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey gave Houston and the surrounding region a $125 billion lesson about the costs of misjudging the potential for floods.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:36 pm




https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions


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Post by 'Wolfie on Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:42 pm

soapbox

This week New South Wales is experiencing the kinds of "unprecedented" wildfires that California and Queensland were copping a few weeks ago...

Maybe if the likes of New York, London, Tokyo, Washington, Paris, Berlin, Moscow and Beijing were to get some of the droughts, fires and floods that the real world have been, we might see more people standing up against the corporatists and their political lackeys, who have been driving the anti-science and climate-denialists bandwagons over the past few decades..

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Post by 'Wolfie on Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:43 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions

Rolling Eyes

Go fuck yourself,  you braindead puppet...


Don't you know that "spamming" is a basementing offence on here ?

You repeating corporate lies off a mining/oil company propaganda blogsite is another form of "spam", pure and simple..

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Post by nicko on Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:26 am

The above post is why so many posters are leaving
If you can't have an opinion without some foul mouthed yob insulting you, what's the point of posting ?
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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:22 pm


Read the predictions on the link...


And didn't Al Gore predict that there wouldn't be any ice at the arctic by now...!!!???


lol!




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Post by Andy on Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:59 pm

nicko wrote:The above post is why so many posters are leaving
If you can't have an opinion without some foul mouthed yob insulting you, what's the point of posting ?
Because Monkey wasn't voicing an opinion, but spreading lies and propaganda from a site with a vested interest in discounting climate change.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:18 pm



Maybe andy can show where any of the predictions weren't actually made when claimed on the article...!?



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Post by Maddog on Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:04 pm

nicko wrote:The above post is why so many posters are leaving
If you can't have an opinion without some foul mouthed yob insulting you, what's the point of posting ?

The forum isn't bad when he's blocked. Cool

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Post by Maddog on Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:08 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:It turns out, none of the predictions were "alarmist" enough:

For decades, most scientists saw climate change as a distant prospect. We now know that thinking was wrong. This summer, for instance, a heat wave in Europe penetrated the Arctic, pushing temperatures into the 80s across much of the Far North and, according to the Belgian climate scientist Xavier Fettweis, melting some 40 billion tons of Greenland’s ice sheet.

Had a scientist in the early 1990s suggested that within 25 years a single heat wave would measurably raise sea levels, at an estimated two one-hundredths of an inch, bake the Arctic and produce Sahara-like temperatures in Paris and Berlin, the prediction would have been dismissed as alarmist. But many worst-case scenarios from that time are now realities.

Science is a process of discovery. It can move slowly as the pieces of a puzzle fall together and scientists refine their investigative tools. But in the case of climate, this deliberation has been accompanied by inertia born of bureaucratic caution and politics. A recent essay in Scientific American argued that scientists “tend to underestimate the severity of threats and the rapidity with which they might unfold” and said one of the reasons was “the perceived need for consensus.” This has had severe consequences, diluting what should have been a sense of urgency and vastly understating the looming costs of adaptation and dislocation as the planet continues to warm.

In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group of thousands of scientists representing 195 countries, said in its first report that climate change would arrive at a stately pace, that the methane-laden Arctic permafrost was not in danger of thawing, and that the Antarctic ice sheets were stable.

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Relying on the climate change panel’s assessment, economists estimated that the economic hit would be small, providing further ammunition against an aggressive approach to reducing emissions and to building resilience to climate change.

As we now know, all of those predictions turned out to be completely wrong. Which makes you wonder whether the projected risks of further warming, dire as they are, might still be understated. How bad will things get?

So far, the costs of underestimation have been enormous. New York City’s subway system did not flood in its first 108 years, but Hurricane Sandy’s 2012 storm surge caused nearly $5 billion in water damage, much of which is still not repaired. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey gave Houston and the surrounding region a $125 billion lesson about the costs of misjudging the potential for floods.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html

I actually read that article the other day.

Its more interesting the further you go along. Scientists also didnt believe that the climate could rapidly change, but ice core samples prove that it's happened quite a few times in the past.

So what we are seeing is cause for concern, but it's also something that predates the burning of fossil fuels.

Could be we are just screwed.

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Post by 'Wolfie on Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:10 pm

nicko wrote:The above post is why so many posters are leaving
If you can't have an opinion without some foul mouthed yob insulting you, what's the point of posting ?
Rolling Eyes

Tommy  didn't "have an opinion.." there though,  nicko...

All he did was post a link to a propaganda/lobbying blogsite  --  not even a news source or someone elses 'opinions', but merely a lying propaganda puff piece --  with zero comment on his part..


As for any 'lefties' the likes of me, Andy, Quill, veya or Eilzel chasing your bullying fascist mates away (as you have falsely claimed several times in recent weeks..) -- just name one, you jumped up little turd --   and yet I can name plenty of people you have been insulting on here over the years.  Including a veteran (sassy's father), an ex-'serviceman' (Korben Dallas), and an Army Reservist in just three incidences I've seen --  where you showed us just what a horrible and nasty little hypocrite you are at heart..  

Plus I actually know of people naming you, Victor and co. as the reasons they don't post here much any more -- more than you have been able to substantiate your rancid lies with...

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Post by 'Wolfie on Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:17 pm

Maddog wrote:
nicko wrote:The above post is why so many posters are leaving
If you can't have an opinion without some foul mouthed yob insulting you, what's the point of posting ?

The forum isn't bad when he's blocked. Cool
cheers

Kicked any cripples or homeless people today,  Dopeydawg  ???

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Post by nicko on Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:26 pm

Another example of the shit in Wolfie's Skull !
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Post by Andy on Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:13 pm

'Wolfie wrote:
nicko wrote:The above post is why so many posters are leaving
If you can't have an opinion without some foul mouthed yob insulting you, what's the point of posting ?
Rolling Eyes

Tommy  didn't "have an opinion.." there though,  nicko...

All he did was post a link to a propaganda/lobbying blogsite  --  not even a news source or someone elses 'opinions', but merely a lying propaganda puff piece --  with zero comment on his part..


As for any 'lefties' the likes of me, Andy, Quill, veya or Eilzel chasing your bullying fascist mates away (as you have falsely claimed several times in recent weeks..) -- just name one, you jumped up little turd --   and yet I can name plenty of people you have been insulting on here over the years.  Including a veteran (sassy's father), an ex-'serviceman' (Korben Dallas), and an Army Reservist in just three incidences I've seen --  where you showed us just what a horrible and nasty little hypocrite you are at heart..  

Plus I actually know of people naming you, Victor and co. as the reasons they don't post here much any more -- more than you have been able to substantiate your rancid lies with...
+1

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Post by nicko on Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:38 pm

What a load of bullshit,please point out where I have insulted Sassy's father,Korben And the "Army reservist !Your a lying scumbag, trying to cover up YOUR lies , So PROVE THESE LIES IN PRINT,you wont because you wont find any !
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Post by Victorismyhero on Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:03 pm

wolfie now in basement for a while...

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Post by Andy on Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:22 pm

But Rambo is permitted by biased mod to call me  a geranium and a wanker.
He wondered why so many have deserted here.
All us horrid left wing Marxist commie reds under the beds scared off the likes of Allakaka, Stormee Major, Smelly Bandit, the mean girl squad.
Fuck me, we did this place a massive favour.
He was right though, it is dying more every day, the Brexit and left / right differences will kill it further.
Great own goal Vic. How did scientists get climate change so wrong? 2581891615

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Post by Victorismyhero on Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:56 pm

Andy wrote:But Rambo is permitted by biased mod to call me  a geranium and a wanker.
He wondered why so many have deserted here.
All us horrid left wing Marxist commie reds under the beds scared off the likes of Allakaka, Stormee Major, Smelly Bandit, the mean girl squad.
Fuck me, we did this place a massive favour.
He was right though, it is dying more every day, the Brexit and left / right differences will kill it further.
Great own goal Vic. How did scientists get climate change so wrong? 2581891615

grow up Andy...

nicko called YOU in response to your vile baiting...a perfectly reasonable response

In tghis case tommy did NOT abuse wolfie........it was wolfie who started the abuse

see this is the trouble with you low intelligence marxist types....like the school bully you like to hand it out, but you cant take it in response...oh no thats not fair...


now STFU with your whingeing and grow a pair.

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Post by Fred Moletrousers on Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:56 pm

Andy wrote:
nicko wrote:The above post is why so many posters are leaving
If you can't have an opinion without some foul mouthed yob insulting you, what's the point of posting ?
Because Monkey wasn't voicing an opinion, but spreading lies and propaganda from a site with a vested interest in discounting climate change.

That would appear to be much the same principle as adopted by your Boris Johnson vent thread.
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Post by Andy on Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:00 pm

Spreading = casting over a wide area. Adopting a scattergun approach.
My Johnson thread is tightly and sharply focussed.
Many of the posts are FACTS, some are satirical takes on him.

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Post by Vintage on Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:16 pm

Well, look at it this way if any more leave, the like minded on here can spend the evenings agreeing with each other all the time, orchestrated by the school yard bully - Andy, once he's run off the people with an opposite opinion, if this place survives he'll start on those who are like minded and find minutiae of difference to have a go at. .
For somewhere that suggests polite, civil debate its become more about tantrums, goading, name calling and bullying against anyone who dares to say anything different, seems some people just can't counter a different opinion without insults.

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Post by Andy on Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:22 pm

I start plenty of diverse threads.
Some are spoilt by someone who admits he rarely, if ever starts threads.
Better than 10% of his posts are "+1".
.If we all adopted that stance , this place would die overnight.

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Post by Vintage on Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:39 pm

Ok you start threads but it seems you start them with the express purpose of using them as an excuse for insults and name calling, not to mention goading other posters.
Anyway, I've had my say.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:20 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Read the predictions on the link...


And didn't Al Gore predict that there wouldn't be any ice at the arctic by now...!!!???


lol!



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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:21 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

Maybe andy can show where any of the predictions weren't actually made when claimed on the article...!?



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