Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study

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Post by Guest on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:29 pm

Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030

The world is on track to reach dangerous levels of global warming much sooner than expected, according to new Australian research that highlights the alarming implications of rising energy demand.

University of Queensland and Griffith University researchers have developed a “global energy tracker” which predicts average world temperatures could climb 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2020.

That forecast, based on new modelling using long-term average projections on economic growth, population growth and energy use per person, points to a 2C rise by 2030.

The UN conference on climate change in Paris last year agreed to a 1.5C rise as the preferred limit to protect vulnerable island states, and a 2C rise as the absolute limit.

The new modelling is the brainchild of Ben Hankamer from UQ’s institute for molecular bioscience and Liam Wagner from Griffith University’s department of accounting, finance and economics, whose work was published in the journal Plos One on Thursday.

It is the first model to include energy use per person – which has more than doubled since 1950 – alongside economic and population growth as a way of predicting carbon emissions and corresponding temperature increases.

The researchers said the earlier than expected advance of global warming revealed by their modelling added a newfound urgency to the switch from fossil fuels to renewables.

Hankamer said: “The more the economy grows, the more energy you use ... the conclusion really is that economists and environmentalists are on the same side and have both come to the same conclusion: we’ve got to act now and we don’t have much time.”

Wagner said the model suggested the surge in energy consumption was not offset by improvements in energy efficiency.

He said energy use per person was on track to rise sixfold by 2050, which had dire implications for temperatures when combined with economic growth of 3.9% a year (the six-decade average) and a world population of 9 billion.
“Massive increases in energy consumption would be necessary to alleviate poverty for the nearly 50% of the world’s population who live on less than $2.50 a day,” Wagner said.

“We have a choice: leave people in poverty and speed towards dangerous global warming through the increased use of fossil fuels, or transition rapidly to renewables.”

Hankamer said: “When you think about statements like ‘coal is good for humanity’ because we’re pulling people out of poverty, it’s just not true”.

“You would have to burn so much coal in order to get the energy to provide people with a living to get them off $2.50 a day that [temperature rises] would just go through the roof very quickly.”

The researchers suggested switching $500bn in subsidies for fossil fuels worldwide to renewables as a “cost neutral” way to fast-track the energy transition.

Wagner said pulling the rug from out under the fossil fuels industry was a move of “creative destruction” and “more a political issue rather than an economic issue”.

“If we swapped those subsidies globally, of course we could have rapid improvement and deployment of renewables to cover our shift from fossil fuels,” he said.

“You’re pushing a huge amount of capital into a different sector that requires an enormous amount of growth, so you would actually see a great deal more growth from putting it into renewables than providing it for fossil fuels.”

Hankamer said the fact that about 80% of the world’s energy was for fuel, and only 20% for electricity, meant “we don’t have any easy solutions”.

“If we want to do this, we need to do things like solar fuels, or think about how we do battery technologies and fully transition to electric,” he said.

“The things that are going to be hard to replace are aviation fuels and things for heavy machinery and probably shipping.

“We can do electric cars for short runs but those things are going to be really hard to switch.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study?CMP=share_btn_tw

2 degrees doesn't seem like much does it?   But it will make a huge difference to the world, destroy plant and animal habitat, reduce crop yields, more flooding and drought.  We have already seen how much it is changing with the floods this year, FGS when are governments going to wake up and take action!   I want a world for my grandchildren and their children to grow up in.

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Post by Ben Reilly on Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:35 am

To hear the denialists' protests over renewable energy, you'd almost think human beings have been burning petroleum products since the beginning. Humanity adjusts to having different available sources of energy.
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Post by Guest on Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:05 am

denialists are ass holes who have at best a Negligible understanding of the science ,actually morons that confuse weather with climate
and think because its snowing out side that disproves global warming

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Post by Guest on Thu Mar 10, 2016 9:36 am

Stormee wrote:All bullsh**, scare tic tacs to get more of our money.

The world has looked after itself for a few tears now.

All guesswork by people wanting to keep themselves in a good job.
I rest my case Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  265384880

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Post by Guest on Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:46 pm

Exactly!

The climate is changing so fast I have no doubt they are right about this.  I a horrible thought that over the never few years our children and grandchildren are going to have to deal with problems never envisaged in our lifetimes.  That people could be so stupid as to deny thing and exasperate the problems for people who come after them is beyond belief.

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Post by Victorismyhero on Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:34 pm

anyone for fried Saudis?
or sun dried iranians


they recon the temps in those regions wiil be "beyond liveable " very soon......
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Post by Guest on Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:36 pm

Too true, and in other places.   Whereas we will probably be facing flood after flood at the very least.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:17 pm

While back in the real world... when you look back over a much longer period of history... way back beyond the last hundred years or so of the much proclaimed benchmark of normal 'since records began' stuff... you will quickly see that things have been both much warmer and much cooler than today...
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Post by Victorismyhero on Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:26 pm

yes yes tommy...of course

but then.....

society wasnt so dependant on a steady climate

nor in general did it change so quickly

and when on the odd occaision it did change quickly it caused massive famine and disaster over varied regions
and even massive changes to the TYPE of biosphere...from jungle to savanaah

from fertile to desert

etc....

whatever the reason its changing, its changing fast ...and it aint good for anyone....




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Post by Tommy Monk on Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:59 pm

But it's not changing fast... in fact it hasn't changed at all for last 20 years...

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Post by Guest on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:04 pm

Oh my good god, someone send for the men in white coats!

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Post by Victorismyhero on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:07 pm

rubbish tommy ...absolute rubbish

no winter to speak of for at least 25 years...apart from "odd ones"

whereas prior to that it was freezing from novenber at least ..and snow ...and deep snow often from back end of december onwards...

unprecedented levels of rainfall, more and regular high winds....

LESS thunderstorms in late summer/autumn

Oh yes its changing alright.....

and globally too

hurricanes of greter frequency and power

oceanic currents disrupted and changed......



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Post by Guest on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:08 pm

Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  Giss_temperature

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Post by Ben Reilly on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:22 pm

Here in North Texas the climate has been a little scary over the past month or so. We usually get a few snow/ice storms per winter, had none this winter and hardly any days where it dipped below freezing, even overnight.

Spring arrived in late February, whereas just a few years ago we had a major snow event in mid March and spring didn't start until early April.

It's really going to ruin spring if that happens again this year -- everything has already bloomed and greened up.
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Post by Victorismyhero on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:28 pm

yup we are greening up right now, daffodils have been out for over a week and a half, and the catkin bearing trees have been in full flow for over a fortnight....
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Post by Guest on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:33 pm

December 2015 was the wettest month ever recorded in the UK.  I have loads of flowers out!

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Post by Victorismyhero on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:35 pm

sassy wrote:December 2015 was the wettest month ever recorded in the UK.  I have loads of flowers out!

dont I know it...I got mildew in me sawdust pile.......
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Post by Ben Reilly on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:41 pm

My former boss told me that it used to be SOP for people in Dallas-Fort Worth to put snow chains on their tires when winter rolled around. I have never seen a vehicle with snow chains around here in my life.
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Post by 'Wolfie on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:41 pm

Stormee wrote:All bullsh**, scare tic tacs to get more of our money.

The world has looked after itself for a few tears now.

All guesswork by people wanting to keep themselves in a good job.
Rolling Eyes

DON'T be such an ignorant moron all your life,  Stormee  !!!

PLEASE, show us some actual evidence to back your silly and baseless statements..

ELSE be prepared to be known as one of the stupidest and most clueless persons on here.

sunny
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Post by 'Wolfie on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:45 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:But it's not changing fast... in fact it hasn't changed at all for last 20 years...

Rolling Eyes

YOU don't half talk a load of rubbish,  Tommy...

HOW about educating yourself on maters scientific and technical first, instead of continually making such a goose of yourself ?
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Post by Tommy Monk on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:09 am

Normal isn't just restricted to what happened recently...


Daffodils are always up around this time of year...


The river Thames regularly froze over a couple hundred years ago... but before then it didn't... and it doesn't now!


Look back a few centuries further and there is plenty of evidence of heavier rain and flooding in parts of uk... but there weren't the housing developments on the flood plains then so nobody complained then... but geological evidence is clear.


If you think that you can look at only a hundred years and then try to tell us that this is the normal and anything outside of this is abnormal... then you might as well be looking out the window one day and then trying to tell us that this is what should be expected to be seen as normal for the whole of the year!!!



Yeah sassy... the wettest ever... since records began only a hundred years ago...!!!


How about since before then...!?


lol!


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Post by 'Wolfie on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:13 am

What a Face

NOTICE how the great uneducated love to shout "it's only a couple of degrees - our temp's change more than that during the day !"

BUT what they don't realise is what a difference just 2 degrees celsius rise in average annual global temp's can mean :

* farmers will have to either  moves to other areas, or else change their crops and stock to meet chages in local conditions;
* water supplies  become more limited, scarce, valuable;
* winter storm surges along coast lines become more regular and more intense;
* Melanomas, heat stroke and other heat related issues become more prominent;
* ice in glaciers, mountains and at the poles melt faster, AND aren't being formed and replaced as often during the winters..

FORGET about the Arctic - it's a good indicator of change, but :
1. That ice is floating already - it won't affect the sea levels all that much,
2. There is much more ice contained in : 
Antarctica
Northern Canada
Northern (sub-arctic) Russia
Greenland
Mountain glaciers..

AS well as the effects on humans and their industries, also consider how many thousands of species will become extinct, unable to either adapt or migrate quick enough as to avoid the changing climate...

Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  1191311443


Last edited by WhoseYourWolfie on Fri Mar 11, 2016 6:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Tommy Monk on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:23 am

Natural fluctuations in global temperatures are always happening...


It has been warmer before...


We are coming out of a mini ice age...and returning to NORMAL TEMPERATURES!!!


Look it up you fools!!!


Look up "mini ice age" and "river Thames freezing"...


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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:26 am

Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  Rancho-Cucamonga-Home-Mortgage-First-Time-Home-Buyers-Randy-Charlton-Keller-Williams-Realty-Homer-Simpson-Doh

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Post by Victorismyhero on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:28 am

sigh
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:29 am

It would be funny if it wasn't so bloody tragic and if the lives on those that come after are not going to be so severely impacted by idiots like Tommy.

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Post by Victorismyhero on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:34 am

tommy has been affected by global warming


see silicon doesnt work well as temperature rises....just look what happens when your puter gets hot......it slows down....

and him being a rock brain...the hotter it gets the dumber he gets.... Razz

theres a lot of it about........
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:36 am

How very true (and I'll say no more as I'm being good Smile)

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Post by Ben Reilly on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:39 am

It's a complicated issue, but with some people you can't even get into stuff like that -- they just want concepts that are simple and require little to no thought.

What I always like to ask, and what I will ask Tommy now -- if the climate is warming at a dangerously fast rate, why do so many scientists who study the climate as a profession insist that it is?
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Post by 'Wolfie on Fri Mar 11, 2016 6:22 am

Tommy Monk wrote:Natural fluctuations in global temperatures are always happening...

It has been warmer before...

We are coming out of a mini ice age...and returning to NORMAL TEMPERATURES!!!

Look it up you fools!!!

Look up "mini ice age" and "river Thames freezing"...
Rolling Eyes

ONCE again,  Tommykins...

WHERE is the evidence to back up your recycled mistruths and misdirections ?

ALL that you are doing is rehashing the same old corporate lies fed to you by the oil and coal companies..

HOW about showing us some genuine, authentic and believable climate scientists to back up your idiotic and fallacious assertions == NOT simply telling us what some advertising goons are spouting out there in la la land ?

YOU'RE behaving as the biggest fool on here today,  Tommy Monk..
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 7:32 am

Tommy Monk wrote:Normal isn't just restricted to what happened recently...


Daffodils are always up around this time of year...


The river Thames regularly froze over a couple hundred years ago... but before then it didn't... and it doesn't now!


Look back a few centuries further and there is plenty of evidence of heavier rain and flooding in parts of uk... but there weren't the housing developments on the flood plains then so nobody complained then... but geological evidence is clear.


If you think that you can look at only a hundred years and then try to tell us that this is the normal and anything outside of this is abnormal... then you might as well be looking out the window one day and then trying to tell us that this is what should be expected to be seen as normal for the whole of the year!!!



Yeah sassy... the wettest ever... since records began only a hundred years ago...!!!


How about since before then...!?


lol!


you know it amusing how actual little you know ,half understood facts and events cloud every opinion you seem to have ,i am guessing you never heard of the mini ice age caused by an volcano eruption or the reason we expect a white Christmas in this country.

when a white Christmas isn`t really that common, all related to the Thames freezing and the same thing happened on the tyne

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Post by 'Wolfie on Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:04 am

Ben_Reilly wrote:It's a complicated issue, but with some people you can't even get into stuff like that -- they just want concepts that are simple and require little to no thought.

What I always like to ask, and what I will ask Tommy now -- if the climate is warming at a dangerously fast rate, why do so many scientists who study the climate as a profession insist that it is?
Cool 

I LIKED the way a visiting climate scientist from the USA put it, a few years back (again, my paraphrasing here..) :

"IF the world is heating up, and the climate changing, as fast as observations and the resultant scientific modelling would suggest, than it is already past time that mankind is cleaning up its' act...
IF it turns out that it isn't quite so bad, then we still won't have wasted the money, as the world is already heavily polluted, and overdue for cleaning up."

THOSE nongs pushing the oil/mining/energy lies and propaganda - like Tommy and Stormee in this thread - are part of the ongoing problem. NOT the solution..
THE longer those (ir)responsible corporations, their mindless puppets and supplicant politicians keep on delaying the fixes, the worse the eventual fallout will be. And more expensive those remedies will cost the world...

I Wonder how the Tommys and Stormees of this world wil explain to their grandchildren, just why they are being so gullibly forceful and thickheaded in continually denying the facts, and arguing against fixing the causes ?

Arrow
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:44 am

Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  Global_Warming_Map-620x342

VS what our world looked at
the end of 2015

Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  JananomGISS

A KISS {keep it simple stupid} primer for those in total denial...
you can't take the reports/stats from our earliest years of recorded
weather data and use those stats for an ABSOLUTE positive that
there isn't any need for concern or reason that 'MAN' has to change
the way we're leaving a FOOT PRINT upon this globe!

1.) we are billions more humans then back in those days
2.) mass instantaneous extinction of the dinosaurs would be an
prime example of how fast weather data can be modified by cataclysmic events: i.e. massive volcanic activity - earthquakes - meter events
3.) hole in our 'OZONE' didn't just happen over night; but our man made foot print has created that just during 'MY LIFE TIME'
4.) as our ocean levels raise and the temperatures increases the instant impact upon the very things that depend on that consistency: fish/mammals/crustaceans/coral reefs/the very wind currents of El Niño and all of the life sustaining fishing industry and every food source from farm to table that survives on that consistent weather pattern is feeling a rapid impact

But as with all things eventual and beyond our ability to prove what is happening - what will be --- standing on the sidelines and being OBTUSE is your right; just don't pretend shock & awe when what once was an affordable food source has suddenly become a luxury item to buy or your favorite beach front property is now only obtainable via a wet suit and oxygen tank!  Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  2190311264

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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:53 am

Scary isn't it?   But Tommy will still come on and deny it bless him.

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Post by Ben Reilly on Fri Mar 11, 2016 10:07 am

WhoseYourWolfie wrote:
Ben_Reilly wrote:It's a complicated issue, but with some people you can't even get into stuff like that -- they just want concepts that are simple and require little to no thought.

What I always like to ask, and what I will ask Tommy now -- if the climate is warming at a dangerously fast rate, why do so many scientists who study the climate as a profession insist that it is?
Cool 

I LIKED the way a visiting climate scientist from the USA put it, a few years back (again, my paraphrasing here..) :

"IF the world is heating up, and the climate changing, as fast as observations and the resultant scientific modelling would suggest, than it is already past time that mankind is cleaning up its' act...
IF it turns out that it isn't quite so bad, then we still won't have wasted the money, as the world is already heavily polluted, and overdue for cleaning up."

THOSE nongs pushing the oil/mining/energy lies and propaganda - like Tommy and Stormee in this thread - are part of the ongoing problem. NOT the solution..
THE longer those (ir)responsible corporations, their mindless puppets and supplicant politicians keep on delaying the fixes, the worse the eventual fallout will be. And more expensive those remedies will cost the world...

I Wonder how the Tommys and Stormees of this world wil explain to their grandchildren, just why they are being so gullibly forceful and thickheaded in continually denying the facts, and arguing against fixing the causes ?

Arrow

Hey granddad, what did you do in the war against runaway anthropogenic climate change?

"Oh, I spread disinformation on behalf of Exxon ..."
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 10:16 am

Now that shouldn't make me laugh, but it did, and is soooo appropriate!

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Post by Tommy Monk on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:08 pm



Ignore history and believe bullshit instead...


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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:15 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Ignore history and believe bullshit instead...


::::hdscrtch:::It would appear that you'd rather 'WE' didn't make advances with ANY OF OUR TECHNOLOGY and remained in the 'Dark Ages' Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  2787774761  back when people assumed the world was flat - that demons did come up out of the earth at night - that people could stop volcano's by tossing new born babies or virgins into the fiery pits - that applications of leeches and multiple blood letting could cure all of our aliments...yes, indeed. 

Those good ole' days when we just made educated guess with what limited knowledge we had at the time Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study  2581891615

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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:27 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

Ignore history and believe bullshit instead...


Tommy obviously did not do very well at school in the science subjects and i understand completely because it was the same for me in English lessons i knew some of the basic punctuation and the rules for spelling but could not really understand it and put it in to practice like everybody else

its just a fact some people can not get there heads round complicated and many faceted concepts and science is very complicated and to hide there ignorance they conflate and misinterpret ,or just plain make facts up




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Post by Tommy Monk on Fri Mar 11, 2016 1:42 pm


"The Little Ice Age is a period between about 1300 and 1870 during which Europe and North America were subjected to much colder winters than during the 20th century. The period can be divided in two phases, the first beginning around 1300 and continuing until the late 1400s."


And when someone claims a weather event is "unprecedented" as it has never happened 'since records began'... all that means is in the last hundred years or so!!!


When you fools start to understand these two simple truths... then you may start to see things in the bigger picture...
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 1:50 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
"The Little Ice Age is a period between about 1300 and 1870 during which Europe and North America were subjected to much colder winters than during the 20th century. The period can be divided in two phases, the first beginning around 1300 and continuing until the late 1400s."


And when someone claims a weather event is "unprecedented" as it has never happened 'since records began'... all that means is in the last hundred years or so!!!


When you fools start to understand these two simple truths... then you may start to see things in the bigger picture...
and what caused it tommy

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Post by Tommy Monk on Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:11 pm



And when someone claims a weather event is "unprecedented" as it has never happened 'since records began'... all that means is in the last hundred years or so!!!
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:34 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

And when someone claims a weather event is "unprecedented" as it has never happened 'since records began'... all that means is in the last hundred years or so!!!
And still missing a point ? actually we can go a lot further back when you look at ancient text as they often contain good historical weather data

not only that we can determine weather pattens information locked in geology and plant life ,we can analyse the content atmosphere from hundreds ,thousands if not millions of years ago

so when you trot out "since records began" your only talking as you say about the last hundred years BUT "Written records"go back a lot further than that

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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:47 pm

For tommy


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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:51 pm

For tommy too



Ps

i know they are a little advanced for you but stick with it Laughing

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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:56 pm

more advanced tommy but give it a go


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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:30 pm


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Post by eddie on Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:36 pm

Lord Foul wrote:rubbish tommy ...absolute rubbish

no winter to speak of for at least 25 years...apart from "odd ones"

whereas prior to that it was freezing from novenber at least ..and snow ...and deep snow often from back end of december onwards...

unprecedented levels of rainfall, more and regular high winds....

LESS thunderstorms in late summer/autumn

Oh yes its changing alright.....

and globally too

hurricanes of greter frequency and power

oceanic currents disrupted and changed......




I have noticed, over the last six months or so, that it has got much windier too!
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:43 pm

eddie wrote:
Lord Foul wrote:rubbish tommy ...absolute rubbish

no winter to speak of for at least 25 years...apart from "odd ones"

whereas prior to that it was freezing from novenber at least ..and snow ...and deep snow often from back end of december onwards...

unprecedented levels of rainfall, more and regular high winds....

LESS thunderstorms in late summer/autumn

Oh yes its changing alright.....

and globally too

hurricanes of greter frequency and power

oceanic currents disrupted and changed......




I have noticed, over the last six months or so, that it has got much windier too!
Stop eating beans Razz

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