Latest UK Polls

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Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:58 am

Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out today, with topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%

MORI also asked respondents to choose between the parties on various more specific measures – a bank of questions with back data going back to 1989:

  • On having the “best policies for the country as a whole” the Conservatives now lead by ten points (compared to a two point Tory lead in 2010 and 2014, and a Labour lead from 1992 to 2005).

  • On being the most clear and united about its policies the Conservatives lead by twenty points (compared to ten points in 2014, five points in 2010. The last time there was a lead this big was a 31 point lead for Labour in 2001.)

  • On having the best “team of leaders” the Conservatives lead by twenty-seven points (compared to eleven points in 2014 and five points in 2010 – again you need to go back to Labour in 2001 to find a larger lead)

  • The only measure where Labour haven’t collapsed is “looking after the interests of people like yourself” – here the Conservatives have a narrow lead of four points, compared to a two point Labour lead in 2014 and a four point Tory lead in 2010.


The poll also had questions about two policy issues facing Labour. One was Jeremy Corbyn’s suggestion that companies should be barred from paying dividends if they don’t pay the living wage. In principle this idea seems popular – 66% of people say they would support it, 17% of people would be opposed. In the survey MORI did a split sample experiment and asked the other half of the sample about the policy without any attribution, and half about it having explained it was Jeremy Corbyn’s suggestion. When the policy was identified as coming from Corbyn support was lower – 60% support, 24% opposed.
The obvious conclusion is that identifying a policy as coming from Jeremy Corbyn makes it less popular. This is probably true… but I wouldn’t get too excited about it. Conservative party modernisers used to make their case using similar data showing policies were less popular when associated with the Conservative party. I think the reality is that strong partisan supporters of other political parties will almost always be turned off a policy when it is associated with an opponent, so yes, putting Jeremy Corbyn’s name to a policy would make it less popular, but so would putting the Labour party’s name to the policy, or the Conservative party’s name, or Osborne or Cameron’s name.
The other policy MORI asked about was Trident. 58% of people opposed Britain getting rid of nuclear weapons, rising to 70% when it was asked specifically about unilateral disarmament… a similar figure to when MORI asked the same question in the 1980s.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9591


It does make for interesting reading this. With huge austerity measures and yet there is an increase for Tory support and policies.
I think two aspects stand out here.
One again people think with what is in their pocket
Two people are concerned at the appeasement of the left on security issues

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Raggamuffin on Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:18 am

I presume that Corbyn's talking about the voluntary living wage, not the compulsory one. If companies don't pay the compulsory one, they'll be in trouble anyway.

He can't ban companies from paying dividends as long as they're paying employees the legal rate - that would be absurd.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Raggamuffin on Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:55 am

Right, so assuming that he's talking about the voluntary living wage, I don't think he's thought this through.

First of all, not all shareholders are "fat cats". There are plenty of people with a small shareholding. If they didn't get dividends, they would lose money that they perhaps depend on a little bit. The value of their shares would fall because bigger investors aren't going to bother with companies who don't pay out a dividend and whose shares are unlikely to rise in value very much in the long term.

He won't be able to apply it to foreign companies of course, only British ones, so guess what? British companies would go down the pan and the foreign ones will flourish.

It wouldn't necessarily affect bonuses paid to the "fat cats" who run those companies or are directors.

It may well create benefits for rich speculators who could use the fall in share prices to their own advantage - something I'm sure Corbyn would not like to see.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:58 am

Raggamuffin wrote:Right, so assuming that he's talking about the voluntary living wage, I don't think he's thought this through.

First of all, not all shareholders are "fat cats". There are plenty of people with a small shareholding. If they didn't get dividends, they would lose money that they perhaps depend on a little bit. The value of their shares would fall because bigger investors aren't going to bother with companies who don't pay out a dividend and whose shares are unlikely to rise in value very much in the long term.

He won't be able to apply it to foreign companies of course, only British ones, so guess what? British companies would go down the pan and the foreign ones will flourish.

It wouldn't necessarily affect bonuses paid to the "fat cats" who run those companies or are directors.

It may well create benefits for rich speculators who could use the fall in share prices to their own advantage - something I'm sure Corbyn would not like to see.

Very interesting Rags
I think it would still apply to foreign companies in the UK
What may well instead then happen, is they would do something far worse and close their businesses here and set up shop else where.
So your point would still stand on this.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Raggamuffin on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:07 am

Didge wrote:
Raggamuffin wrote:Right, so assuming that he's talking about the voluntary living wage, I don't think he's thought this through.

First of all, not all shareholders are "fat cats". There are plenty of people with a small shareholding. If they didn't get dividends, they would lose money that they perhaps depend on a little bit. The value of their shares would fall because bigger investors aren't going to bother with companies who don't pay out a dividend and whose shares are unlikely to rise in value very much in the long term.

He won't be able to apply it to foreign companies of course, only British ones, so guess what? British companies would go down the pan and the foreign ones will flourish.

It wouldn't necessarily affect bonuses paid to the "fat cats" who run those companies or are directors.

It may well create benefits for rich speculators who could use the fall in share prices to their own advantage - something I'm sure Corbyn would not like to see.

Very interesting Rags
I think it would still apply to foreign companies in the UK
What may well instead then happen, is they would do something far worse and close their businesses here and set up shop else where.
So your point would still stand on this.

They'd find ways round it - possibly by issuing shareholders with different kinds of shares whereby they're not subject to British rules - other than tax rules of course.

Also, how is he going to police this and find out what companies are paying each of their employees?

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:08 am

Stormee wrote:I hear and read this, I dunno what to believe.

People on the minimum wage whatever  amount it has been over the years get government top ups to survive which to me is wrong.
Any company which does not pay a nationally agreed LIVING WAGE should be closed down.

I bet directors, company owners live well on NOT paying a LIVING WAGE to employees.


So you would install mass unemployment.

They should be fined, but closed down is not the most practical policy I think anyone would back.

I back a living wage and it will happen, as already some companies like Lidl's have up their wages to accommodate this.
This always has an effect on other companies within that industry, as they will then lose the best pool of people
It tends to make others up their money over a period of time

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:09 am

Raggamuffin wrote:
Didge wrote:

Very interesting Rags
I think it would still apply to foreign companies in the UK
What may well instead then happen, is they would do something far worse and close their businesses here and set up shop else where.
So your point would still stand on this.

They'd find ways round it - possibly by issuing shareholders with different kinds of shares whereby they're not subject to British rules - other than tax rules of course.

Also, how is he going to police this and find out what companies are paying each of their employees?

Not sure to be honest rags, the details here would be very important to understand how this would work.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Raggamuffin on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:12 am

Stormee wrote:I hear and read this, I dunno what to believe.

People on the minimum wage whatever  amount it has been over the years get government top ups to survive which to me is wrong.
Any company which does not pay a nationally agreed LIVING WAGE should be closed down.

I bet directors, company owners live well on NOT paying a LIVING WAGE to employees.


This is why the Government is bringing in the national living wage - so that people earn more and therefore don't need to claim top up benefits - in theory anyway. In April there will be a living wage of £7.20 per hour, but only for people over 25.

There's also a voluntary living wage, which is different and is a higher amount than the statutory one. I'm pleased to see that quite a few companies have decided to pay the voluntary living wage.

Of course, it might mean that companies cut costs in other ways - by cutting jobs, for example.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Raggamuffin on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:15 am

Didge wrote:
Stormee wrote:I hear and read this, I dunno what to believe.

People on the minimum wage whatever  amount it has been over the years get government top ups to survive which to me is wrong.
Any company which does not pay a nationally agreed LIVING WAGE should be closed down.

I bet directors, company owners live well on NOT paying a LIVING WAGE to employees.


So you would install mass unemployment.

They should be fined, but closed down is not the most practical policy I think anyone would back.

I back a living wage and it will happen, as already some companies like Lidl's have up their wages to accommodate this.
This always has an effect on other companies within that industry, as they will then lose the best pool of people
It tends to make others up their money over a period of time

The voluntary living wage is very useful in areas with low unemployment. As you say, if one company is paying more than a similar company, people will apply to the one which pays more. The second company will therefore either have to raise wages or be very short-staffed because they can't recruit, which pisses off the people already working there, and who might leave.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Raggamuffin on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:19 am

Didge wrote:
Raggamuffin wrote:

They'd find ways round it - possibly by issuing shareholders with different kinds of shares whereby they're not subject to British rules - other than tax rules of course.

Also, how is he going to police this and find out what companies are paying each of their employees?

Not sure to be honest rags, the details here would be very important to understand how this would work.

Foreign investment in British companies may well drop too - I don't suppose he's thought about that.

This is the trouble with people like Corbyn - he may well have the interests of "poor" people at heart, but he needs to think about the long-term consequences of what he's proposing.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:29 am

Raggamuffin wrote:
Didge wrote:

Not sure to be honest rags, the details here would be very important to understand how this would work.

Foreign investment in British companies may well drop too - I don't suppose he's thought about that.

This is the trouble with people like Corbyn - he may well have the interests of "poor" people at heart, but he needs to think about the long-term consequences of what he's proposing.

100% agree rags

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Raggamuffin on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:32 am

These polls are a bit silly really. Of course if you ask people if shareholders should get rich on dividends whilst the workers are paid a pittance, they're going to say no. That's because they don't understand how the market works and the knock-on effects of such a policy.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Tommy Monk on Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:43 pm

Mass immigration pushes up the cost of living while also pushing/holding down wages and suppressing wage increases...




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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Sat May 27, 2017 8:03 pm

We should have a truckload of polls tonight. There is a new Opinium, a new ComRes for the Indy & Sunday Mirror, YouGov for the Sunday Times, probably an ORB and perhaps an ICM for the Sun on Sunday. I’ve seen rumours of Survation too (they normally poll for the Mail on Sunday) and we’re overdue a Panelbase poll. The thing to look for is whether polls continue to show a narrowing of the Conservative lead – keep an eye on the fieldwork dates, more recent polls could be showing an impact from reactions to the bombing (or, indeed, the effects of the dementia tax row fading). Also remember the house effects I wrote about earlier – ICM and ComRes tend to show larger Tory leads anyway, so even if they show a significant movement towards Labour it may still leave the Tories with a good lead.


The first poll we actually have figures for is Opinium, who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.


ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.


I’ll update this post through the evening as other polls appear.


http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9896

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by The Devil, You Know on Wed May 31, 2017 11:27 pm

Con majorities...
Electoral Calculus 98
Fisher et al. combined 100
Nigel Marriott 109
ComRes 100+
Ashcroft Model 142
Yougov Model - hung

what is clear is that the tories are not in freefall as they are a point down on the figures they had when the election was called.
Labour have increased their share somewhat, but then people do tend to like being offered free stuff from the magic money tree. And don't like having to face up to the realities of the day.
However when it comes to put that x in the box most will not be so stupid as to vote for the three stooges of corbyn, maodonnell and abbot, who would make britian into a worse version of Venezuela.

The tories will have a comfortable majority.
Labour will claim victory if they have 200 seats left, I am not sure they will.

If you want labour in power then dont vote tory. If you dont, then every vote that isn't for the tories puts corbyn one step closer to not defending our country.

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Original Quill on Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:23 am

Dino wrote:...people do tend to like being offered free stuff from the magic money tree. And don't like having to face up to the realities of the day.

Rather like free pretzels on the bar, as you finish your pint. Brings the lads in.


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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Fred Moletrousers on Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:36 am

Original Quill wrote:
Dino wrote:...people do tend to like being offered free stuff from the magic money tree. And don't like having to face up to the realities of the day.

Rather like free pretzels on the bar, as you finish your pint.  Brings the lads in.  


Very true, Quill. The trouble is, though, that someone is having to pay for those "free" pretzels in the long run, and all too often it's not the ones gorging themselves at the bar.
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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:25 am

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are [url=http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/KPUK - final tables - 31.5.2017.pdf]here[/url].


We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here


In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.
Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.


There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.




http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9900

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by Guest on Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:30 am

YouGov is showing the narrowest gap between Labour and the Tories, ICM the widest. Who to believe?

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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by nicko on Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:05 am

Don't believe any of 'em, they are always wrong, [ mostly]
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Re: Latest UK Polls

Post by The Devil, You Know on Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:21 am

Fred Moletrousers wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

Rather like free pretzels on the bar, as you finish your pint.  Brings the lads in.  


Very true, Quill. The trouble is, though, that someone is having to pay for those "free" pretzels in the long run, and all too often it's not the ones gorging themselves at the bar.
very true, and likely to make you sick in the long run(s)

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